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Welcome to one of the great accidents in sports history -- a one-time mega-leap in the salary cap that will unleash an orgy of confused spending. This is Year 2 of a three-year earthquake during which the NBAs salary cap will nearly double from $63 million to around $110 million, with almost half of that bump coming in this single outlier free-agency period.Teams still arent quite sure what will happen or how they might exploit the chaos. A year ago, with most of the jump still looming, they could at least be sure almost every long-term contract would soon look like a bargain. That might no longer be the case; the league projects a smaller increase next summer (from $94 million to $107 million, though most expect it to go higher) before the cap flattens in 2018 and beyond -- pending a potential lockout in 2017, that could upend parts of the collective bargaining agreement..A bad long-term deal signed this summer could still look bad two years from now. Teams have to be more choosy even as conditions require they spend boatloads to reach the minimum payroll of $85 million.The boom will have some predictable consequences, but the tremors will shake the NBA landscape in ways we cant anticipate. Here are five things to watch as we enter the free-agency Thunderdome.1. Timing, and the Marvin Williams/Dwight Howard conundrumIn the past three years, the Pistons and Blazers have beaten the market with aggressive deals for Jodie Meeks and Al-Farouq Aminu right after the midnight opening bells. Given the glut of cap space, team executives expect more insta-deals for second- and third-tier free agents.Every capable rotation player will choose among rich offers. If you like, say, Solomon Hill or Mirza Teletovic, you might as well unload a dump truck of cash on them right out of the gate while a half-dozen teams are waiting on Kevin Durant.The length of deals might end up being more interesting than the money. The stars are going to get whatever they want -- at least four years for Nicolas Batum, Al Horford?and Mike Conley, plus whichever path Durant chooses between long-term security and the one-year option that would maximize his salary.For the middle class, we might have reached a point at which factors push both teams and some players toward shorter-term deals. Beyond 2017, teams see a flattening cap, glitzy free-agent classes and a potential work stoppage -- though Id still consider it unlikely that a lockout costs any part of the 2017-18 season. They have incentive to keep their powder dry.At the same time, they have tens of millions to burn before even reaching the salary floor. They might approach an intriguing player with some gargantuan one- or two-year deal and hope the money is so eye-popping that the player takes it.Normally teams dont get much upside from one-year deals; the Kings purchased six months of stat-hoggery from Rajon Rondo,?and can now either let him walk or overpay him based on inflated numbers. Its like choosing between cauliflower and lima beans. You dont even get a players Bird rights, meaning that once he hits free agency again, you dont have the right to go over the cap in re-signing him; you have to use precious cap room instead.But teams can make one- and two-year deals work for them. If the salary is hefty enough, the limited version of Bird rights you do get is usually enough to cover whatever raise the player might seek the following season -- meaning the team can fill its cap space on other dudes, and then re-sign its guy.For players, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. A lot was made last summer of how most players opted for long-term security over one- and two-year deals. But a bunch of guys chose the short-term route: Greg Monroe, Jeremy Lin, Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, Paul Millsap, Arron Afflalo, Derrick Williams, Bismack Biyombo, Teletovic, Rondo and a couple of others all bet on themselves to varying degrees.Bostons deal for Johnson still generates lots of chatter: The Celtics paid Johnson an annual salary -- $12 million -- well above what he would have received on average over a longer contract, and in exchange, he signed a one-year deal with a fully non-guaranteed second season. Johnson is now a trade asset with a relatively low cap number, and hell get to test the market again during another cap spike.Teams could offer these sorts of deals both at tipoff, as well as when free agency dies down in mid-July, when GMs with leftover cash are looking for that last-call hookup. The players union is even encouraging guys to sign contracts that decline over time so they get as much cash up front as possible, sources say.But older players are risk-averse, and if they are staring at rival one- or two-year deals, a lot of them will leverage the bidding into an extra year. That third season could become the breaking point.Take Marvin Williams: Hes 30, coming off a career year, and he brings a positional versatility that could help any team. It would not be preposterous for someone to offer him a two-year, $38 million deal. (Seriously, get ready, everyone.) But if Williams hungers for more guaranteed cash, which team will bend and offer something like (gulp) three years and $50 million?The answer should be: a good team that views Williams as the player who takes it into the 55-win range. The third (or fourth) year might hurt, but its the cost you pay to enter the contenders circle. A middling team or a bad one should pass, and sift for gems on shorter contracts.Dwight Howard might be the thorniest test of willpower. Teams are turning up their noses at even a two-year guaranteed deal for Howard anywhere near his max. But progress, real and imagined, can make teams do funny things. The Blazers have a gazillion in cap room, and they want to hold the line in a Western Conference that will be better almost across the board. They could use a defensive anchor at center, and they will absolutely look at Howard, per several league sources.Boston has a Dwight meeting on the books already -- stock up on candy, guys! -- and could use a rim protector.Will these teams have the discipline to fold when the bidding gets heated? Signing Howard introduces a wild card into a teams culture, and for the Blazers, it would change the way they play. Howard isnt as nimble as Mason Plumlee,?and not nearly as comfortable a passer in space; could he punish teams that trap Damian Lillard the way Plumlee does with artful drive-and-kick plays?Someone is going to cave on these guys.2. Who slides back?After years of Tankapalooza, the NBA has reached a point at which almost every team -- and maybe literally every team -- wants to win more basketball games. What a concept!The NBA is a zero-sum game. A team that wants to win will fail, and by failing, net a prize in a loaded draft lottery. The path from the playoffs to the top half of the lottery is clear.Some swing teams to monitor:The Hawks are reluctant to offer Horford the fifth year only they can dangle, and if they hold firm, they are at grave risk of losing him for nothing, per league sources. (Watch out for the Pistons on Horford; with Wednesdays trade of Meeks, they are one tiny move away from being able to fit his max. They are working to schedule a meeting with Horford over the first 48 hours of free agency, sources say. Horfords fit alongside Andre Drummond is another question entirely.)Atlanta already traded Jeff Teague for a rookie. Kent Bazemore will have suitors everywhere, including in Milwaukee, Memphis and Brooklyn, sources say. If Bazemore and Horford walk, the Hawks will be at a fork in the road: rush to fill the gaps with high-priced talent or trade Millsap and race to the bottom?Seriously: How many teams are worse than a Hawks team without Horford, Bazemore and Millsap? Three or four, if that? Mike Budenholzers role as as both coach and GM is the wild card; coaches vomit at rebuilds, but his title also provides the job security to survive one.Dallas dreams of luring both Mike Conley and Hassan Whiteside on max deals, per ESPN BlackBerry maven Marc Stein, but absent a series of salary-sloughing trades, the Mavericks cant open up the requisite $49 million in room with Chandler Parsons cap hold sitting on the books. Rumors have already burbled that the Mavs dont want to offer Parsons a max after his knee issues, and that Parsons could seek his payday elsewhere.The Mavs have whiffed on every big-name free agent since they let Tyson Chandler walk, and they will have a ton of competition for Whiteside and Conley; the Grizzlies are almost as confident about re-signing Conley as they were with Marc Gasol?last offseason.The Mavericks can keep Parsons Bird rights as they negotiate with bigger fish to hedge against the nightmare scenario of losing out on everyone, though Parsons can torpedo that by signing someplace else right away. Teams are terrified about Parsons knees and crow they will hold firm at a number below his max. But Parsons is eligible only for the lowest-tier max deal, starting at about $22 million, and a GM on thin ice with chambered cash might bite that bullet -- especially if he can persuade Parsons to take a shorter deal.Parsons might want to lock in as much moola as possible now; he knows his knees better than anyone, and the uncertainty of a revised collective bargaining deal looms.Regardless: Dallas again faces serious downside on the treadmill of mediocrity. Dirk Nowitzki doesnt want to leave, but hes also tired of losing in the first round.Houston should have no trouble hanging in the 40-plus-win range as long as it surrounds?James Harden with a few guys who fit, but ownership has championship expectations. Its unclear how the Rockets approach that level again.They are not getting a meeting with Kevin Durant. They offered both Trevor Ariza and Patrick Beverley before the draft in hopes of snagging one or two first-round picks, though sources insist they also wanted a veteran back in any such deal. Those two are snug fits next to Harden. If youre dealing them and missing on Durant, what exactly is the path back into the Wests upper echelon next season?Knowing Houston, it will involve pitching every big-time free agent who might listen; Stein reported on my podcast the Rockets have some interest in Conley, continuing their quixotic quest to flank Harden with a ball-on-a-string point guard, and Daryl Morey, the teams GM, has always erred on the side of chasing top talent and figuring the rest out later.What happens if Houston misses on Horford, Conley, Batum, Whiteside and others? Remember: Morey let Parsons walk two years ago because he didnt want to tie up max money on a third option. Given the pressure to win, will he pass on someone like Ryan Anderson for the same reason? Power forward is a giant question mark given Houstons free agents there spent last season either pooping the bed (Terrence Jones) or in street clothes (Donatas Motiejunas).Philadelphia and Brooklyn will be bad, but early indications are that both will go hard after young-ish free agents with untapped upside. They have enough cap space to make it rain with offer sheets, and at worst, they will drive up both prices and the pace of business in restricted free agency -- bad news for a team like the Warriors, who might need to wait out Durant before making a choice on Harrison Barnes.(This might not matter; teams cant lavish offer sheets until the moratorium ends July 7, and incumbent teams have three more days to match. Durant will likely have made up his mind by then).?Brooklyn has strong interest in adding some character veterans, including Jared Dudley, sources say.Philly might kick the tires on glossier moves, including Barnes and the East Coast relocation of Waiters Island -- though reports of the Sixers interest in?Dion Waiters?during former GM Sam Hinkies administration were always bogus, per several league sources.Teams are worried Brooklyn will jump the market on unrestricted free agents with ties to new coach Kenny Atkinson (Lin, Bazemore), and some under-the-radar young guys.3. Will we get any big trades?A few months ago, it seemed as though the cap-space flood might grease the wheels for starry trades involving Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, DeMarcus Cousins, Jimmy Butler?and a few others. That market has cooled. The Cavs are content, and Chicago has swatted away Butler inquiries since the draft (though Minnesota and especially Boston will still try).Clippers coach Doc Rivers has talked publicly about keeping the gang together in Los Angeles, and even the much-discussed Griffin-Durant sign-and-trade is unwieldy; any player acquired in a sign-and-trade must sign for at least three seasons, meaning Durant would forfeit the one-year-deal route in agreeing to that arrangement.The Kings are capable of untold horrors. Monroe is available, but Milwaukee cant wring anything good for a guy who could bolt in a year -- in part because this free-agency class market is packed with centers. The Pelicans have explored a Monroe-Anthony Davis partnership before, but they are hopeful Omer Asik will rebound after a dreadful season; they are in no rush to waive him via the stretch provision, allowing them to spread his remaining guaranteed money, sources say. Still: they will watch the market for centers, including Monroe.The Wolves will likely waive Nikola Pekovic at some point, but they dont appear to be a Monroe destination. Portland, Atlanta and Washington have all shown interest in Monroe before, but none is eager to surrender a real asset -- not even a protected first-round pick.One type of deal that could happen: teams getting off long-term contracts signed over the past two years. Weve already seen that sort of deal with Tobias Harris, Robin Lopez?and Thaddeus Young. In theory, teams shouldnt be eager to trade guys locked into affordable deals signed under the old cap regime, but someone will need to shed money in a roster pinch. Across the table, suitors should be willing to give up real stuff for guys on affordable long-term deals.The Raptors will need to move at least one big deal to have any hope of retaining both DeMar DeRozan and Biyombo, and teams will call about?DeMarre Carroll. Toronto has already approached Philly about a deal sending out a rotation player -- perhaps Terrence Ross, and other goodies -- in exchange for Nerlens Noel, who could then assume Biyombos backup center role, according to league sources. The talks havent gained much traction yet.Phoenix seems ripe for a deal, though Chandlers contract is a bit of an albatross. The Pacers would probably like to dump Monta Ellis. Alec Burks will be expendable at some point soon for Utah. John Henson signed a four-year, $45 million extension last fall and barely played; if youre Boston, would you rather sign Howard to some monster one-year deal or flip a pick and a prospect for Henson?4. How will restricted free agency go?Good restricted free agents almost never change teams. Teams wield matching rights as a deterrent against suitors and can sometimes leverage a lack of interest into a bit of savings.Perhaps not this season. There are a ton of teams with oodles of cap room and very little to lose. Tying up space for three days as the incumbent waits to match might cost you a player, but some teams have so much space that they could extend a max-level offer sheet and still chase targets.Reaching for Barnes, Evan Fournier?or Allen Crabbe isnt a disaster; theyre young, you get them through their primes, and if they just follow an average development curve, theyll be movable down the line. In the worst case, you make their incumbent teams pay the full boat. Sometimes you just have to be mean. By the way: Orlandos acquisition of Meeks should have no bearing on its approach with Fournier. No one knows whether Meeks is healthy; the Magic need Fournier, badly.Hell, even after a wasted season, someone should still throw eight figures at Jones just to see if he can sustain the flashes of canny all-around play he showed in Houston. The market will be chillier on most midtier guys, which increases the likelihood their teams will match; Meyers Leonard stands as perhaps the only realistic candidate to sign the one-year qualifying offer and enter unrestricted free agency next season.Watch out for the so-called Gilbert Arenas restricted free agents with only one or two years spent in the league, especially Langston Galloway, Tyler Johnson?and Jordan Clarkson. Rival teams can offer them only the midlevel exception (about $5.6 million) in the first year and a small raise in Year 2, but they can leap all the way up to the players max salary in Years 3 and 4. (These are the trickster offers Houston used to pry away Lin and Asik four years ago.)The bigger numbers should come into play only for Clarkson, though a team might offer a backloaded three-year deal to Galloway or Johnson.5. Will we see more creative contract extensions?Yes! Heres the deal: If teams have cap room, they can use it on raises for guys who signed their current contracts at least three years ago -- and tack more years onto the end of those deals. Denver did this last season with Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, and both the Jazz and Pacers seem like good candidates to try with George Hill and Teague -- provided they have the requisite space leftover.If they play their cards right, the Pacers and Kings could start this process with Paul George and Cousins, respectively, in September. Derrick Favors becomes eligible a month later. The Wizards could engage with John Wall on the last day of July -- the third anniversary of the day he signed his extension.Some of these talks wont materialize; teams will use most or all of their cap space to sign new players. But teams have spent the past few years lamenting the death of extensions for stars. The cap boom has resurrected them. 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Woodson said during a radio interview Thursday that the Knicks Carmelo Anthony doesnt get the same calls as other superstars. LONDON -- It was a foreboding touch to hear a gong-type noise played on U.K. television coverage as Andy Murray failed to save a fifth set point against Kei Nishikori in an epic 18-minute first-set tiebreaker on Wednesday.A similar booming sound played over Arthur Ashe Stadiums loudspeakers in Septembers US Open. After the mysterious noise, Murray melted down in a five-set quarterfinal defeat to Nishikori. But this time, Murray just about regrouped at the World Tour Finals to beat the world No. 5 6-7 (9), 6-4, 6-4.He still flirted with disaster here. Several times he got wound up into a similar state of agitation as he had in that fourth set at Flushing Meadows; he was distracted throughout, remonstrating with himself and shouting at his box.I didnt feel like I was hitting the ball as well as I would have liked, Murray later told a news conference. He was dictating so many of the points. For me it was frustrating. Didnt matter whether I tried to hit the ball a bit harder, adjusted my position on the court, nothing was making me hit the ball cleaner.As the match went on, I was getting kind of frustrated, then becoming like sarcastic with myself that I couldnt seem to hit the ball as clean as I wanted to. Yeah, I dont often do that, but today I was definitely being more sarcastic towards myself than usual.His frustrations almost cost him dearly when he failed to take two set points at 5-4 in the second set, having already been broken back once. He then needed four games to finally put away Nishikori, after building a 5-1 lead in the decider.No doubt about it, this was a step up in class for the Scot -- not since his French Open final defeat to Novak Djokovic in June had he faced a top-five opponent.There was nothing really in it, Murray admitted. He could have won in two sets, for sure. He was dictating many points. He had a number of chances.Murrays place in the semifinals is far from guaranteed, though, after Stan Wawrinka?rebounded from an opening loss to beat Marin Cilic 7-6 (3), 7-6 (3) in Wednesdays evening session at Londons O2 Arena.If Wawrinka beats Murray in two sets, and Nishikori wins against Cilic, then Murray will be out of the tournament and Djokovic will finish as year-end No. 1. But if Cilic gets his first win here, Murray and Wawrinka will both qualify for the semifinals regardless.All I know is if I want to have a chance to qualify, I need to win, said Wawrinka. Thats all I know. Thats all Im trying to do.ddddddddddddIm going to try to play my best tennis, to beat the world No. 1. Its going to be a tough match. We played many times each other. Hes playing his best tennis so far. Its going to be interesting. Im happy to play here in front of his home crowd. Im sure its going to be a great atmosphere.One man who definitely wont be here at the weekend is Gael Monfils, who withdrew from the Tour Finals with a rib injury that he first picked up in Stockholm last month. The Frenchman had lost his opening two matches to Milos Raonic and Dominic Thiem -- Djokovic will now play alternate David Goffin in his final round robin match Thursday.Definitely I cant play for tomorrow because I still feel worse and worse, my ribs, that I had lately, Monfils told a news conference. Yeah, I feel that even yesterday was tough in the game. I feel unfortunately today I couldnt be feeling great and couldnt practice, so I just decide that I couldnt play tomorrow.Monfils announcement pushed Murrays own news conference even further back -- the Scot had already been scheduled to come in to press two hours after his match against Nishikori finished.I was in the ice bath after the match, he said when he finally turned up. That obviously helps kind of make you feel a bit better. But, yeah, sort of 10, 12 hours afterwards the body starts to stiffen up. Im sure tomorrow Ill be a bit sore. But its positive I get a days rest, a days recovery tomorrow.He will need the rest -- this was officially the longest three-set match in Tour Finals history at 3 hours, 20 minutes.Not quite as long as the near five-hour epic between Murray and Nishikori that went five sets in the Davis Cup in March, nor the three hours, 57 minutes they played in New York, but still draining.While it wasnt a vintage performance, Murray found a way to get the job done, stretching his win streak to 21 matches, one short of his career-best set earlier this summer.For now, he is quickly learning that it is one thing to get to the top of the rankings, and another thing to stay there. He must match or outdo Novak Djokovics results here to finish year-end No. 1, and it could come down to a straight shootout in Sundays final.I think for the tournament and for everyone interested in tennis that would probably be the perfect way to finish the year, admitted Murray. ' ' '